Marcus & Millichap has published Investment Outlook Reports for several major U.S. cities, including Orlando, Philadelphia, Atlanta, Houston, Columbus, Chicago, and New York City.
Key findings within the Orlando report include:
- Orlando continues to rank among the top U.S. metros for net in-migration.
- Population growth is moderating from post-pandemic highs, driven in part by fewer individuals aged 20 to 34 relocating to the metro.
- Employment growth is being weighed down by declines in leisure and hospitality and professional and business services, with slower hiring expected to persist.
- Deliveries will decline from the prior two years but remain more than double the long-term average, keeping supply elevated.
- Vacancy is expected to rise modestly from an already elevated level, maintaining pressure on average asking rents.
Key findings for the Philadelphia report include:
- Philadelphia’s labor market remains a standout, with 26,000 jobs expected to be added in 2026—among the highest totals on the East Coast.
- Population growth is projected to turn negative in 2026, marking the first annual decline since 2008.
- Construction activity is moderating, with deliveries down nearly 25% year over year, easing supply pressures across the metro.
- Vacancy is forecast to rise slightly to 8.6% as demand from younger renters softens.
- Asking rents are expected to increase to $1.26 per square foot, supported by a contracting development pipeline.
Key findings within the Southeast Florida include:
- Southeast Florida continues to attract strong in-migration, with population growth in all three metros expected to exceed the national rate in 2026.
- Deliveries are accelerating, with 2026 completions expected to more than double the long-term average and drive inventory growth of approximately 4.7 percent.
- Vacancy is projected to rise to approximately 7.3 percent by year-end but remain among the lowest levels across major U.S. markets.
- Average asking rent is expected to soften to approximately $1.56 per square foot as new supply comes online.
- Inventory expansion is being driven by a concentrated pipeline across key corridors.
Key findings within the Atlanta report include:
- Atlanta’s population will grow by roughly 60,900 residents in 2026, representing one of the largest gains nationally.
- Employment is expected to rebound with 17,000 jobs added, outpacing the national growth rate.
- Construction is slowing significantly, with inventory expanding at the slowest pace since 2017 and suburban deliveries falling sharply.
- Vacancy is forecast to decline to 10.0%, ending a four-year stretch of rising availability.
- Asking rents are projected to rise to $0.98 per square foot, supported by limited new supply and improving fundamentals.
Key findings within the New York City report include:
- Development remains constrained by high construction costs and limited land availability, keeping new supply below the metro’s historical average.
- Deliveries will be concentrated in Manhattan, Brooklyn, and Queens, while the overall pipeline remains subdued relative to prior cycles.
- Metrowide vacancy is expected to rise modestly to approximately 8.4 percent, reflecting softer space demand.
- Job growth is slowing to below 1 percent, with weakness in key sectors likely to carry into 2026 and temper demand.
- Net out-migration and a declining 20- to 34-year-old population are reducing a primary source of self-storage demand, while rent performance varies by borough based on new supply.
Key findings within the Houston report include:
- Houston’s economy is stabilizing following volatility in office-using employment, with modest job growth expected to resume and support storage demand.
- Population gains remain a key driver, particularly among young adults and seniors, sustaining household formation and life-stage transitions that fuel storage usage.
- New construction deliveries are moderating significantly compared to prior peaks, helping ease oversupply pressures and rebalance market conditions.
- Vacancy is expected to rise slightly but remain elevated above historical norms, reflecting recent supply additions while still showing signs of stabilization.
- Rent growth has softened, with average asking rents declining below prior peaks, though long-term fundamentals remain supported by demand drivers.
Key findings within the Columbus report include:
- Columbus is projected to lead major Midwestern metros in net in-migration in 2026, supporting storage demand through household formation and residential mobility.
- Employment growth remains strong, with approximately 8,000 new jobs expected, reinforcing population inflows and storage utilization.
- New supply is set to decline sharply, with 2026 deliveries coming in roughly 45 percent below the prior five-year average, easing competitive pressure.
- Vacancy is forecast to compress by 50 basis points to 11.9 percent, as reduced construction and steady demand improve absorption trends.
- Rental rates are expected to increase 1.1 percent, signaling a return to pricing power following a period of elevated vacancies.
- “Improving fundamentals, driven by population growth and constrained development, are positioning Columbus for healthier occupancy and rent gains in the near term,” added Fitzgerald.
Key findings within the Chicago report include:
- Employment growth is expected to slow in 2026, though Chicago’s diverse economic base, anchored by manufacturing, education, and health services, continues to support storage demand drivers.
- Population contraction persists due to net out-migration, yet relatively affordable living costs compared to coastal markets help sustain long-term renter demand for storage space.
- New construction remains limited, with just 851,000 square feet expected to deliver in 2026, helping to prevent oversupply and maintain operational stability.
- Vacancy is projected to rise modestly to 14.1% in 2026, reflecting softer absorption trends, though still supported by steady underlying demand across the metro.
- Asking rents are forecast to increase 1.7% in 2026, as constrained development and stable occupancy trends allow operators to maintain pricing power.
- “Chicago’s position as a major transportation and population hub, combined with disciplined supply growth, is helping sustain long-term stability in the self-storage sector and supports continued rent growth moving forward,” added Weinstock.
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